GBPUSD Surges on Hawkish Bank of England


But with the economy improving, the bank decided in November 2017 to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% - its first hike in a decade - to control inflation which was 3.1% (CPI) in November. Though construction output was stronger than anticipated, expanding by 1.6 percent during the month, some economists say that the figures could lead to economic growth being revised down.

In other key takeaways the bank espoused positivity in respect to wage growth, inflation, the UK's jobs market and indeed global growth - with acceleration in the global economy liable to help support the UK's own. We continue to be relatively defensively positioned in equities, despite the recent dip, and are looking at certain sectors - such as Financials - which tend to benefit from a rising interest rate environment. This scenario, however, will leave inflation above 2% in three years, which can be judged to increase interest rates with more than the expectations of investors.

A steeper path of interest rate rises over the next year would not be a "great shock" to the economy, the Bank of England's deputy governor said this morning.

The market is looking for a May rate hike for the BOE at the moment, and the odds of a hike priced in by the OIS market has jumped to 70.2% from under 50% before the meeting.

"We expect the MPC to lift interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% in May, followed by a further increase to 1.0% in November".

It leaves the door open to a potential rate hike as soon as May, with markets also now pencilling in more than three hikes within three years.

"Today's decision to maintain the Bank Base Rate at 0.5 per cent was not a surprise, not least after the wobbles in markets earlier this week and the previous comments from the Monetary Policy Committee that any further rises would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent".

The Bank of England linked the sluggish British outlook to slower growth in the labour force, due to fewer immigrants coming to Britain after Brexit and to the country's ageing population.

Broadband confirmed that was the general thinking of the committee but insisted that a couple of rate rises this year would not have a significant effect on markets.

Governor Mark Carney said last month that Britain's chances of catching up with its faster-growing peers depended largely on progress in the Brexit negotiations between London and Brussels. "The Brexit process will twist and turn before it is concluded", Mr Carney said today. So, be on the look out for these two data points later this month.

Given this undoubted hawkishness, we are bringing forward our expectations for the next interest rate hike in the United Kingdom from August to May, when the next set of economic projections will be released.